2 Week Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Cyclone outlook updated at 1:30 pm AEST on Saturday 10 April 2021
This tropical cyclone outlook displays the probability of a tropical cyclone developing within 300 km of Eton at any stage over the next 14 days. This forecast is generated using predicted atmospheric pressure values from the ECMWF computer model Ensemble Prediction System.
The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction system runs a computer model simulation of the next 2 weeks ahead a total of 50 times. The set of 50 forecasts each simulate the next 2 weeks representing 50 different slight variations in conditions over the forecast period. This allows for the prediction to cover a variety of different scenarios possible over the next 2 weeks.
The probability listed below is an estimate of the chance of a tropical cyclone being located within 300 km of Eton on each day over the next 14 days, using each of the 50 different forecast variations from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. This outlook is experimental and is designed to give an early heads up to the development of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea basin.
This forecast is an estimate only. Please always refer to the Bureau of Meteorology for official forecasts, warnings, and emergency information.