Forecast Accuracy Last Fortnight
The tables below show the accuracy of key forecast elements over the last week. "Diff" shows the difference between the recorded value and the forecast value. Diff values in green show forecasts that were within the goal range, pink shows forecasts that were outside of
the goal range.
Recorded values listed below are combined values from the Eton & Stoney Creek weather stations.
Recorded values listed below are combined values from the Eton & Stoney Creek weather stations.
Minimum Temperature (Goal ±2 °C)
| Mean Absolute Error | 1.6 °C  |
| Average Error | 0.5 °C |
| % Success | 71 |
| Date | Recorded | Forecast | Diff |
| Fri 04 Oct | 15.4 | 15 | 0 |
| Thu 03 Oct | 17.4 | 15 | 2 |
| Wed 02 Oct | 19.7 | 19 | 1 |
| Tue 01 Oct | 14.6 | 14 | 1 |
| Mon 30 Sep | 14.8 | 18 | -3 |
| Sun 29 Sep | 16.5 | 12 | 4 |
| Sat 28 Sep | 14.4 | 16 | -2 |
| Fri 27 Sep | 17.7 | 18 | 0 |
| Thu 26 Sep | 18.3 | 17 | 1 |
| Wed 25 Sep | 13.4 | 16 | -3 |
| Tue 24 Sep | 18.0 | 15 | 3 |
| Mon 23 Sep | 8.4 | 8 | 0 |
| Sun 22 Sep | 12.5 | 11 | 2 |
| Sat 21 Sep | 15.5 | 16 | 0 |
Maximum Temperature (Goal ±2 °C)
| Mean Absolute Error | 0.8 °C |
| Average Error | -0.1 °C |
| % Success | 100 |
| Date | Recorded | Forecast | Diff |
| Fri 04 Oct | 28.9 | 27 | 2 |
| Thu 03 Oct | 26.6 | 28 | -1 |
| Wed 02 Oct | 27.8 | 28 | 0 |
| Tue 01 Oct | 32.1 | 32 | 0 |
| Mon 30 Sep | 31.8 | 32 | 0 |
| Sun 29 Sep | 32.3 | 33 | -1 |
| Sat 28 Sep | 31.4 | 29 | 2 |
| Fri 27 Sep | 31.6 | 33 | -1 |
| Thu 26 Sep | 31.1 | 31 | 0 |
| Wed 25 Sep | 28.2 | 29 | -1 |
| Tue 24 Sep | 27.9 | 28 | 0 |
| Mon 23 Sep | 29.7 | 29 | 1 |
| Sun 22 Sep | 31.1 | 32 | -1 |
| Sat 21 Sep | 35.7 | 36 | 0 |
Rain (Goal within range)
| Mean Absolute Error | 0 mm  |
| Average Error | 0 mm |
| % Success | 93 |
| Date | Recorded | Forecast | Diff |
| Fri 04 Oct | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Thu 03 Oct | 1.8 | 0 | 2 |
| Wed 02 Oct | 0.3 | 0 - 2 | 0 |
| Tue 01 Oct | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mon 30 Sep | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sun 29 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sat 28 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fri 27 Sep | 0.0 | 0 - 3 | 0 |
| Thu 26 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wed 25 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tue 24 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mon 23 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sun 22 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sat 21 Sep | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Wind Speed (Goal ±5 km/h)
| Mean Absolute Error | 3 km/h |
| Average Error | -0 km/h |
| % Success | 79 |
| Date | Recorded | Forecast | Diff |
| Fri 04 Oct | 26 | 26 | 0 |
| Thu 03 Oct | 33 | 31 | 2 |
| Wed 02 Oct | 30 | 30 | 0 |
| Tue 01 Oct | 28 | 27 | 1 |
| Mon 30 Sep | 24 | 22 | 2 |
| Sun 29 Sep | 23 | 24 | -1 |
| Sat 28 Sep | 20 | 25 | -5 |
| Fri 27 Sep | 23 | 22 | 1 |
| Thu 26 Sep | 22 | 22 | 0 |
| Wed 25 Sep | 22 | 27 | -6 |
| Tue 24 Sep | 26 | 32 | -6 |
| Mon 23 Sep | 32 | 35 | -3 |
| Sun 22 Sep | 30 | 31 | -1 |
| Sat 21 Sep | 33 | 25 | 8 |